Market research firm Gartner released the latest semiconductor equipment market forecasts, in 2010 more than doubled, reaching 122%, but the 2011 and 2012, respectively, increased by only 10% and 7.4%, the speed slowed down significantly.
However, some companies even more pessimistic view, such as Barclays CJ Muse, its view of equipment in 2011, up 20% from the original, down to down 10%, the contrast between great people to panic. And 2011 the global semiconductor equipment will again fall to 250 million. Its reason is the prospect of global economic uncertainty, the technology supply chain, lack of market demand, especially memory and OEM markets weakened. Muse believes that the future situation with the previous industry has experienced a very similar situation, such as the 2004-2006 cycle, in 2004, after growth of 60%, followed in 2005 and 2006 has a flat 19% increase.
Using a simple calculation, Muse calculated before the Road for the manufacturing equipment (WFE) Q3 2010 orders for the 260-340 billion dollars, which means the order in 2011 WFE soon reach the peak, starting from Q4 2010, Q1 2011 will be particularly continued to decline.
Muse highlighted one thing, the report by the SICAS data from the market demand, macro view, the first half of 2010, only a small amount of capacity increase, 0,3%, while production in 2009 declined by 11% reflect the current production capacity is far from being restored to the level before 2009. In addition, SICAS also proposed, advanced process capacity only increased by nearly 500kwspm (500 000 per month), so there is no spare capacity, especially in size by more and more difficult (ie, immersion lithography equipment delivery delivery delay), which means that the increased investment will continue into 2012.
Overall, Muse to see four trends in 2011;
OEM's equipment orders increased, which is derived from the global OEM revived competition, such as TSMC GlobalFoundries and Samsung want to compete with the high and low.
NAND market, rising demand, there are 3-4 major NAND flash projects ready for implementation, will promote increased investment.
South Korean investment rose, Korea Semiconductor continues to profit, so they continue to invest in DRAM, more technical upgrades, rather than production capacity.
Taiwan has more than enough money. Formosa Plastics to help in the state, the South Asia / Inotera continue to invest.
Investment fell in 2011 a number of aspects;
Logic circuits, 2011 and 2010 decreased 5%. Because on the one hand, under the leadership of Intel's 22nm to promote counter-cyclical investment and rising, but other logic circuits may be flat or declining plants.
Intel's lithography equipment, which is the key, because Intel will focus on orders from the past, according to Nikon mainly into ASML. Other ways to reduce the number of iPad Netbook (online version) of the order, thus affecting the performance of Intel. (IPad OEM using Samsung processor)
Foundry, 2011 and 2010 decreased 20%.
The world's top foundry capacity utilization in Q42010 to Q12011 see the seasonal decline. Muse that TSMC fabless, such as Nvidia to reduce the influence of order, so its investment fell 30% in 2011. TSMC CEO Morris Chang may change investment strategies, which may be affected by the impact of the macroeconomic environment. Due to the UMC and Xilinx's orders to TSMC, Samsung, the effects of decreased investment. On the other hand, Samsung, LSI will continue to increase investment and the investment may be small decline GlobalFoundries.
DRAM 2011 and 2010 decreased 15%.
Because DRAM prices continue to fluctuate until Q1 2011 is still expected seasonal weakness. Especially the top suppliers such as Samsung, Hynix and Micron want a soft landing. As they speed by 4x technology, including 1-2 home DDR3 costs may begin by breaking one U.S. dollar / Gb. Micron will reduce DRAM investment (Nanya / Inotera's capacity utilization is not high), but Elpida / Rexchip / Powerchip investment remained at 2010 levels. Second-tier competitors in the DRAM active investment promotion Samsung will continue to follow up the investment.
NAND flash memory in 2011 with investment growth in 2010 compared to 19%.
NAND price fluctuations, Apple's products need more memory, and Samsung is actively building Line 16, WFE's investment of 2.5 billion, Toshiba / Sandisk up to two billion U.S. dollars of the WFE and WFE IM Flash's 15 million.